Breaking Down the Twins’ (likely) 2024 Opening Day Roster (2024)

Spring Training is here! Pitchers are catchers have reported with hitters officially due soon as well. We have a few injury updates and the picture is becoming clearer on what Rocco and the Twins plan to do in 2024. Let’s get into roster projections as things stand at the opening of Spring.

Catcher

Locks (2): Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vazquez
In contention: None
Next up: Jair Camargo, Patrick Winkel, Brian O’Keefe

Catcher is the easiest position to predict. No one started a game behind the plate other than Jeffers and Vazquez in 2023, and if the Twins have their way it will be the same story this season. If one of the backstops miss time, Camargo is an overqualified third option who would be in line to get significant playing time on most teams. Just added to the 40-man roster this offseason, Camargo still has three option years remaining, giving him plenty of flexibility going forward.

Infield

Locks (6): Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Carlos Santana, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Farmer
In contention: Jose Miranda
Next up: Brooks Lee, Yunior Severino, Anthony Prato, Niko Goodrum

No major surprises here either. Health permitting, Correa and Lewis should be in the lineup nearly every day, while Kirilloff/Santana and Julien/Farmer will form great platoons on the right side of the infield. Kirilloff should see more time in the outfield this season as well, with Farmer getting a few days in left field when the matchups are right (and by that I mean left).

Miranda has a good chance to make the Opening Day squad as they’re currently a right-handed hitter short. His injury-marred 2023 left a bad taste in everyone’s mouths, but he crushed lefties in 2022. However, I’m still 90% certain the Twins will add a right-handed outfielder soon-ish to take that spot away.

Outfield

Locks (4): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Willi Castro
In contention: Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach
Next up: DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Michael Helman

I’ll be curious to see how much, if any, playing time Buxton gets in centerfield this spring. On the one hand, you want to avoid any possible injuries popping up before the season. On the other, he could probably use the reps after not playing the field in 2023.

Kepler is in a contract year and needs to prove that his second-half adjustments last year were legit to set himself up for a big payday. Wallner, similarly, will need to prove that he can be a full-time regular and stave off some likely regression.

Castro will see plenty of time in the infield, but much more in the outfield as the roster is currently constructed. Between Buxton needing time off, limited platoon options in the corners, and Wallner’s defense, Castro should easily eclipse 100 games in the outfield.

To that same end, Martin may have a leg-up on the final position player spot over Larnach or Miranda. Despite being the least experienced option, Martin can play centerfield and swings from the right side. Castro is a great defender across the diamond but is stretched in center. Larnach is redundant with Wallner and Kepler. Miranda can barely field first base and is coming off a major injury. The front office should be trying to sign Michael A. Taylor, Tommy Pham, or Adam Duvall, but Martin could find his way to the majors soon if that doesn’t happen.

Starting Pitcher

Locks (4): Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack
In contention: Anthony DeSclafani, Louie Varland
Next up: Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino, Brent Headrick, David Festa, Randy Dobnak

The starting staff is still a strength for the Twins, even if they take a small step back from 2023. In reality, Sonny Gray’s production was never going to be replicated, either by himself or an external option, so the group was always due for regression. However, there are six established, MLB-quality options and a stable of interesting young guys below them. The group is in a much better position than it’s been even as recently as 2021.

The headliner is López, looking to build on his breakout, Cy Young-caliber performance last season. A couple rough starts in May dampened his overall numbers, but every conceivable advanced metric views him as one of the five best starters in baseball. On top of that, he pitched the Twins to their first postseason victory in two decades and delivered one of the most memorable playoff performances of the year, dominating the Astros in Houston for six innings in Minnesota’s lone ALDS victory.

Behind him, I am very high on Joe Ryan this season. Ryan’s first half was overshadowed by López and Gray, but he looked just as good as the aces through June. Then the groin injury and historic home run issues followed, putting a damper on his season. Through that all, Ryan’s invisi-ball fastball remained one of the best pitches in the game. If he can consistently locate his splitter (like he did in the ALDS) he can be dominant with just two pitches. If he can graduate from the Pablo López/Griffin Jax/Brock Stewart/Pete Maki sweeper school, the sky’s the limit.

Ober is as reliable as they come. Paddack has number two or three starter potential but has to prove he can remain healthy, and his pitch mix would benefit from a sweeper addition. Coming off of his second Tommy John surgery, it’s also unrealistic to expect him to surpass 130 innings this season.

The final rotation spot will come down to Anthony DeSclafani and Louie Varland, but it’s DeSclafani’s position to lose with Varland still having minor league options. Regardless of who breaks camp, both will see plenty of innings for the Twins.

Should the Twins need depth beyond their top six, they have a trio of intriguing options in Woods Richardson, Headrick, and Canterino. Each has their flaws, but are intriguing enough to make them worth an extended look if they pitch well at AAA. Canterin (for health reasons) and Headrick (for stuff reasons) could find themselves in the bullpen, but are both still being treated as starters for now. You can read a detailed breakdown of SWR from John Foley here.

Bullpen

Locks (7): Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Topa, Steven Okert, Jay Jackson, who is real
In contention: Josh Staumont, Kody Funderburk, Jorge Alcala, Cole Sands
Next up (hold on to your socks): Josh Winder (injured), Zack Weiss, Matt Bowman, Jeff Brigham, Daniel Duarte, Ryan Jensen, Ronny Henriquez, and a host of other veterans on minor league contracts not invited to Spring Training.

The top seven are definitively locked. The final bullpen spot comes down to what the Twins want to prioritize. Staumont would be the upside play, but he’s coming off of major surgery and they may want to slow him down. The best answer might end up being Sands, who can give them length when they need and warm the bench otherwise. Rocco won’t be asking any of Duran, Jax, Stewart, or Thielbar to go multiple innings in a blowout, so it will depend on if they feel comfortable having Topa, Okert, or Jackson, who is real, take that role.

Collectively, this might be the best bullpen in Twins history. Duran is one of the most electric pitchers in baseball and is nails in the ninth. Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar give three distinct, reliable options for the seventh and eighth innings. Every other player on the 40-man roster has great qualities out of the ‘pen and they have a host of minor leaguers who could emerge like Stewart and Funderburk last year. Put everything together and it’s an elite mix of high-leverage weapons and upside plays that makes them the best bullpen in the American League, according to FanGraphs.

Pitcher Summary

Locks: 11 (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, Topa, Okert, Jackson)
In contention: 4 (DeSclafani, Varland, Staumont, Sands, Funderburk, Alcala)